Divergent View

What Divergent View is

Divergent View is an extension of the Arb Scanner.

The Arb Scanner surfaces potential opportunities. Divergent View helps explain why an opportunity may exist, where the disagreement is coming from, and whether the spread deserves deeper review.

Instead of only showing that two related markets have different prices, Divergent View gives users a clearer look at the disagreement behind the scan.

The goal is to help users separate:

• real divergence
• stale pricing
• weak matches
• liquidity noise
• resolution-rule differences
• genuinely interesting market disagreement

How it extends the Arb Scanner

The Arb Scanner answers:

Where might there be an opportunity?

Divergent View answers:

Why are these markets different, and is the difference worth paying attention to?

A scanner result may show a spread.

Divergent View adds context around that spread by helping users compare the related markets, inspect the mismatch, and understand what may be driving the difference.

What Divergent View is for

Use Divergent View when an Arb Scanner result needs a second look.

It helps users understand:

• why two markets are pricing differently
• whether the markets are truly comparable
• whether the spread may be caused by stale data
• whether the resolution rules match
• whether one venue is moving faster than another
• whether related markets are reacting unevenly
• whether the opportunity is clean, noisy, or suspicious

Divergent View is especially useful when a spread looks attractive but needs more context before it can be trusted.

Why divergence matters

Not every spread is a clean opportunity.

A price gap may exist because the market is inefficient, but it may also exist because something is wrong with the comparison.

Divergence can come from:

• real market disagreement
• different contract wording
• mismatched settlement criteria
• low liquidity
• stale quotes
• different close times
• delayed venue reactions
• one market pricing in new information faster
• user sentiment diverging from market pricing

Divergent View helps users review those possibilities before treating a scanner result as actionable.

What Divergent View may show

Depending on the current version of Lurk, Divergent View may include:

• the original Arb Scanner opportunity
• the markets being compared
• the visible spread
• market wording or outcome comparison
• venue differences
• price movement context
• freshness indicators
• liquidity context
• possible mismatch warnings
• supporting Signal Search context
• related market movement
• Track Record or Lurk Score context if relevant

The point is not just to show the spread.

The point is to show the structure behind the spread.

Common divergence types

Cross-venue price divergence

This happens when similar outcomes are priced differently across venues.

Example:

Venue A prices an outcome at 62%.
Venue B prices a similar outcome at 54%.

This may be a real opportunity, or it may be caused by fees, liquidity, stale pricing, or contract mismatch.

Resolution divergence

This happens when two markets look similar but may not resolve the same way.

Example:

One market resolves based on an official announcement.
Another resolves based on a specific data source.

This is one of the most important things to check before trusting an arb.

Timing divergence

This happens when related markets have different close times, update speeds, or catalyst exposure.

Example:

One venue updates quickly after news breaks.
Another venue has not moved yet.

This may create opportunity, but it may also disappear quickly.

Liquidity divergence

This happens when the spread looks good, but one side may be too thin to execute cleanly.

Example:

The price gap is large, but available size is weak.

A big spread with poor liquidity may be less useful than a smaller, cleaner setup.

Related-market divergence

This happens when connected markets move differently even though they should influence each other.

Example:

A nomination market moves, but the related election market does not.

This may point to delayed pricing, different assumptions, or a market relationship worth reviewing.

Using Divergent View

A typical workflow:

1. Open the Arb Scanner.
2. Select an opportunity.
3. Open Divergent View.
4. Review why the scanner surfaced the spread.
5. Compare the market terms and outcome structure.
6. Check freshness, liquidity, and venue differences.
7. Decide whether the spread looks clean, noisy, stale, or worth deeper review.

Best practices

Use Divergent View before trusting a scanner result.

Before acting on a spread, check:

• whether the outcomes truly match
• whether the markets resolve the same way
• whether close dates or settlement rules differ
• whether both sides have enough liquidity
• whether one price is stale
• whether fees change the return
• whether the spread is still available
• whether the divergence has a real explanation

The best scanner result is not always the biggest spread.

The best result is the one with a strong combination of spread, match quality, freshness, liquidity, and execution feasibility.

Common issues

“The Arb Scanner shows a spread, but Divergent View makes it look risky.”

That can happen.

Divergent View is meant to expose the reasons a spread may not be clean. A large spread with weak structure may be worse than a smaller spread with cleaner matching.

“Two markets look divergent, but they are not identical.”

Check the resolution rules, outcome wording, close dates, and settlement source.

Similar markets can still be bad matches.

“The divergence disappeared.”

The spread may have closed, prices may have updated, or the opportunity may no longer meet scanner filters.

“The divergence looks stale.”

Refresh the scanner and check the source markets directly.

If the issue continues, contact support with the opportunity, venues, and screenshots.

“Divergent View does not tell me whether to take the trade.”

Correct.

Divergent View is a scanner analysis layer. It helps explain the opportunity and the risks around it. The final decision still belongs to the user.

Important note

Divergent View is a research layer built on top of the Arb Scanner.

It does not guarantee that a spread is valid, executable, profitable, or suitable. It helps users understand why a scanner result exists so they can review opportunities faster and with better context.