Overview

What Track Records are

Track Records help users review performance, history, and credibility over time.

Instead of only looking at a single trade, signal, market call, or result in isolation, Track Records are designed to show how a person, strategy, or source has performed across multiple outcomes.

The goal is to make reputation more evidence-based.

What Track Records are for

Use Track Records when you want to:

• review past market calls
• evaluate a trader, strategy, or source
• understand historical performance
• separate signal from noise
• compare claims against actual outcomes
• track consistency over time
• build credibility through documented results

Track Records are meant to support better judgment, not create a perfect score for everything.

How they work

A Track Record is built from recorded activity and outcomes.

Depending on the current version of Lurk, this may include:

• saved calls
• completed predictions
• market outcomes
• trade theses
• signal history
• resolved events
• performance summaries
• accuracy or result indicators

As more activity is recorded, the Track Record becomes more useful.

What a Track Record may show

A Track Record may include:

• total recorded calls or entries
• wins and losses
• resolved and unresolved items
• accuracy over time
• average confidence
• market categories
• strongest areas
• weakest areas
• recent performance
• notes attached to specific calls

The exact fields may change during beta.

Why Track Records matter

Prediction-market users often make claims, post theses, share signals, or discuss opportunities.

Track Records make it easier to see whether those claims are backed by history.

They help answer questions like:

• Has this person been right before?
• Are they consistent or just loud?
• Do they perform better in certain categories?
• Are they improving over time?
• Do they take clear positions or vague ones?
• Are their results actually documented?

Using Track Records

A typical workflow:

1. Open the Track Records area.
2. Select the person, strategy, source, or record you want to review.
3. Check the summary metrics.
4. Review individual entries.
5. Look at resolved outcomes.
6. Compare recent performance against longer-term performance.
7. Use the record as context before trusting a signal or thesis.

Best practices

Use Track Records as one input in your decision process.

A strong Track Record can increase confidence, but it does not guarantee future results.

Before relying on a record, check:

• sample size
• market category
• recency
• resolution status
• whether entries were specific
• whether the record includes misses, not just wins
• whether performance depends on one lucky outcome

A clean Track Record should show both success and failure.

Common issues

“A Track Record looks incomplete.”

Some entries may not be resolved yet, or the record may only include activity captured inside Lurk.

“The win rate looks misleading.”

Win rate alone can be incomplete.

A person could have a high win rate on tiny low-risk calls or a lower win rate on higher-upside calls. Review the individual entries for context.

“An unresolved item is counted weirdly.”

Unresolved items may be separated from completed results until the underlying market or event resolves.

“A result looks wrong.”

Check the linked market or outcome details.

If the result still looks incorrect, contact support with the record, entry, and screenshots if available.

“The record changed.”

Track Records may update as markets resolve, entries are corrected, or new information becomes available.

Important note

Track Records are evidence tools.

They help users review documented history, but they do not guarantee future performance, prove expertise by themselves, or replace independent judgment. Use them to evaluate credibility faster and with more context.